Defending Matthew Stafford

Here in Missoula, I have the good fortune of being able to choose between listening to ESPN Radio and listening to FOX Sports Radio.  For the most part, I choose Fox Sports Radio for every show except Collin Cowherd and sometimes Scott van Pelt.  There are a number of Fox guys who refer to ESPN as "the evil four letters."  What an apt name.

ESPN is jam-packed with so many hacks it is often quite unbelievable that it can really be the undisputed king of sports programming.  There is a long list of offenses ESPN is guilty of - being unable to talk about baseball for 3 minutes without changing the subject to the Yankees and Red Sox, pretending the west coast doesn't exist for entire seasons of college football, figuring out a way to pretend that only the most PC view on a topic even exists amongst reasonable people in all areas where sports meets politics, etc.  Today I want to talk about ESPN football analysts and their unmitigated foolishness when ranking NFL quarterbacks.

This will come as no shock to anyone who knows me, but I have to defend Matthew Stafford.  Both Matt Williamson and Ron Jaworski (whom I ordinarily enjoy) have made lists of top NFL players this summer that have drastically under-ranked Stafford in favor of guys who can only be reasonably ranked above Stafford in a popularity contest, which is really what ESPN coverage is all about (see: Tim Tebow).

Here are each of their lists up to Stafford:

Jaworski
1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Drew Brees
3. Tom Brady
4. Peyton Manning
5. Eli Manning
6. Ben Roethlisberger
7. Philip Rivers
8. Jay Cutler
9. Joe Flacco
10. Tony Romo
11. Matt Ryan
12. Michael Vick
13. Matt Schaub
14. Matthew Stafford

Williamson
1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Tom Brady
3. Drew Brees
4. Ben Roethlisberger
5. Eli Manning
6. Peyton Manning
7. Philip Rivers
8. Jay Cutler
9. Tony Romo
10. Matthew Stafford

Before I get too carried away, let me just recap what Matthew Stafford did last season, and also some career numbers.  In 2011, Stafford threw for 5038 yds, 41 TD, 16 INT, CMP% 63.5.  Put in historical context, in terms of yards this is the 5th greatest season any QB has had...ever.  Going into 2011, this would have been the 3rd greatest season ever.  In fact, this is only 46 yards shy of Dan Marino's record that stood for 27 years prior to last season.  A lesser-known, but equally impressive ranking of Stafford's season last year is that his 41 TDs are tied with Kurt Warner for 7th all time.  Again, prior to last year this would have been tied for the 5th greatest season all-time.

We all know of Stafford's first two injury-ridden seasons.  What a lot of people forget is that until he got hurt in 2010, Stafford was off to a brilliant 6 TD: 1 INT start.  Last year, he had a TD:INT ratio of 2.56:1.  Including 2010 and throwing out the stats from his rookie year (where he inherited literally the undisputed worst team in the history of the NFL), he has a career ratio of 2.76:1.  Put in perspective, Tom Brady's is 2.6:1.  Drew Brees - 1.92:1.  Aaron Rodgers - 3.47 (!!).  Dan Marino - 1.66.  Kurt Warner - 1.625.  Half decent, comparatively, yes?

Obviously this will come down a bit in the future, but you get the point - right now, Stafford is playing at an extraordinarily high level.

Why is he ranked so low?  Three reasons, from what I can tell.  First, he throws to a guy named Megatron.  Second, he's only put in one full season in his (still brief) three year career.  Third, no one wants to infer too much from one season.  Let me address each of these.

Objection 1: Calvin Johnson inflates Stafford's stats.  He demands double and sometimes triple coverage, so ends up getting everyone else open as well as dominating by himself against whatever coverage is thrown his way.

Reply 1:  Shaun Hill had Calvin Johnson, too.  A former starter in San Fransisco and considered to be one of the best 2nd QBs in the league, in 13 games with Calvin Johnson he threw for 16 TD and 12 INT for a 1.33 ratio. 

Reply 2: Matthew Stafford should get more credit for making Calvin Johnson what he has become.  Prior to 2011 (Megatron's first year with Stafford throwing to him for more than a couple games), in 4 seasons, Calvin's best was 78 catches, 1331 yds, 12 TD.  With Stafford at the helm, he immediately improved to 96 catches, 1681 yds, and 16 TD.

Reply 3: Calvin Johnson is not the only #1 wide receiver in the league.  Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson, until last season, were widely considered to be better than Calvin.  Still, at their best they couldn't turn their QBs into historically great QBs.  The Cardinals' rise and fall was with the QB, not Larry.

Reply 4: The rest of the supporting cast in Detroit is actually considerably weaker than some of the other top QBs on the list.  Aaron Rodgers has Greg Jennings (#40), Jermichael Finley (#66), Jordy Nelson (#148).  Tom Brady has Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez (rankings unknown, but all definitely on the list) and the ability to run the ball.  Brees has Jimmy Graham, Marquez Colston, Robert Meachem, Darren Sproles, Mark Ingram (again...can't find their rankings).  MATT STAFFORD HAS NOT ONE OTHER OFFENSIVE PLAYER ON THE LIST OTHER THAN CALVIN JOHNSON!  Not.  One.

Reply 4 is even stronger when we compare Stafford's supporting cast against other QBs above him - Eli, Romo, Cutler, Rivers, Roethlisberger, Schaub - every single one has multiple other offensive pieces (both skill and line) around him that would make every top 200 list.  Again - only Calvin and Stafford are on there for the Lions' offense.

***UPDATE***
 Reply 5: I forgot to include this one when I was writing this last night.  Let's suppose that Calvin was a mere mortal (silly, I know, but just play along).  If we take away a full 50% of Calvin's production, his numbers would look pretty pedestrian.  He would be 39th in the league in yardage and tied for 11th in TDs.  Stafford would still have thrown for 4198 yds (7th) and 33 TD (5th).  If Calvin were even just a good #1, while not being the best he would have put up his 2008 stats listed above.  These would have made Calvin 6th in yardage and 4th in TD.  Stafford would have been 5th in yardage and 5th in TD.  I know that Calvin also inflates the numbers of other guys on the team by drawing coverage off of them, but for the most part this point is a valid one.  When you consider that the Lions' passing attack receives extra coverage already because everyone knows they can't run the ball, I think that effect probably nullifies that extra bit of coverage that Calvin pulls off.

Objection 2: Injuries.  In three seasons, he's played in a total of 29 games.

Reply 1:  Dr. James Andrews, who did Stafford's shoulder surgery, says his shoulder is as strong as or stronger than any shoulder that has never been dislocated.  The odds of him re-injuring it are no higher than for Tom Brady injuring his.

Reply 2: Piggybacking reply 1, Stafford's really never had any other significant injury in his entire career at any level.  If the shoulder's not an injury concern, there shouldn't be one.

Reply 3: Wait...you're knocking him down the list for injury concerns while leaving Peyton Manning at #16 overall?!?  Didn't he just come off a neck surgery that kept him out all last season?  So...if a neck injury doesn't knock Peyton down the list, why does Stafford's injury knock him down?  And what about other guys higher on the list who are coming off seasons in which they, unlike Stafford, actually missed time due to injury?  Andre Johnson, Hakeem Nicks, Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, Jay Cutler, Matt Forte, Arian Foster, Antonio Gates, Darren McFadden, and more...but I don't have insider, so I can't see them all.

Objection 3: He's only had one great season.  I can't justify moving him so far up the list for one year.

Reply 1: He's played 29 games now, which is almost two full seasons.  Typically people aren't afraid to rank players highly when they're going into their third season, so what's the problem?  He's actually going into his fourth year, and is going into a third year in terms of games played.

Reply 2: His one great season is so...much...better than the best season any that at least 5 (9 on Jaworski's list) of the guys above him have ever even sniffed that it has to be considered.  Eli's best year? 4933 yds, 29 TD, 16 INT (2011).  Rivers? 4710, 30, 13 (2010).  Romo? 4211, 36, 19 (2007).  Roethlisberger? 3154, 32, 11 (2007).  Jay Cutler? 4526, 25, 18 (2008).  None of those seasons should ever even be in the same paragraph as the numbers from Stafford's.

Reply 3: Aaron Rodgers was immediately crowned as the next great thing in the NFL after his first brilliant season.  In 2008 he took over the helm.  In both fantasy and reality (can't find a link, so you'll have to trust me) he was rated a top 4 or 5 quarterback heading into 2009 after one big season.

Reply 4: Other guys who are higher on this list have only had one good year.  A.J. Green, Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Victor Cruz, Von Miller, etc...the list could go on and on both sides of the ball.  Why is Stafford the only one who gets knocked for having only one great year?

And there you have it.  There is absolutely no good argument for rating Matthew Stafford outside the top 5 or 6 QBs in the league.  I would rate him at #5, behind Rodgers, Brady, Brees, and P. Manning.

If any of you want to throw out an argument against me, feel free.  But beware - if you're going to use it to argue against Stafford being above Roethlisberger, Schaub, Romo, Cutler, Matt Ryan (Ha!), Joe Flacco (Haha, good one...wait?  That wasn't a joke...), Vick, Rivers, and Eli Manning, it's probably going to really suck.  If I didn't like Jaworski so much, I'd say he should be fired for his list.  Complete poppycock.

The Megatron Incident

Ordinarily I try to keep this blog about politics, religion, philosophy, etc.  Trust me, I'm not trying to turn it into a sports blog.  That being said, I am a die-hard Detroit Lions fan so I would be betraying myself if I didn't post about the disaster that was the opening game of the season against the Chicago Bears.  I took away six important issues from the game:

1.   Brandon Pettigrew will go down as the worst draft pick in the first three years of the post-Millen era in Detroit.  Why?  Because he was picked as a way to bolster our offensive line ahead of Michael Oher.  When you have Jeff Backus sucking it up and left tackle because Gosder Cherilus proved to be incapable of playing that position in the NFL, why in God's name would you draft a tight end to bolster the line above a left tackle?  Well, it's official - Stafford has now been injured in 3 of his first 11 starts.  Sunday's injury was a direct result of Backus's dwindling ability to play that position.

2.  Jahvid Best is not the second coming of Barry Sanders.  Don't get me wrong - I like Jahvid Best.  But he is now getting to experience what Barry experienced his entire career: the ineptitude of the Lions offensive line.  14 carries for 20 yards is simply not going to get it done.  It's not Jahvid's fault, but that's little consolation.

3.  Matt Stafford should offer to take a pay cut if it means figuring out a way to get a new left tackle.  His health is on the line.  And money can't buy health (usually).  Really at this point I'd say his career is on the line.  It's very difficult for a guy to experience so many injuries early on and still turn in to a productive NFL player (see: Charles Rogers).  Obviously I'm being hyperbolic with the pay cut comment.  My point is simply that the Lions are wrong if they think their tackle situation is ok for the time being.

4.  The Lions defense may just be a lot more stout than originally anticipated.  This is not due to an unexpectedly solid secondary.  It is due to a truly dominant defensive line.  The Lions made their first legitimate goal-line stand in....I don't know how long, but trust me - it's been a long time.  The harassed Jay Cutler all day long and completely contained the running game.  A truly impressive performance by a unit that has been less than miserable since losing Shawn Rodgers to the Browns.

5.  Calvin Johnson, while typically an excellent and smart football player, had the worst game of his short career.  He caught 4 passes for 45 yards.  He dropped two passes, which he almost never does.  And then he dropped the third.  Unquestionably the most crucial catch of his career and the catch that would have given the Lions their first road win since September of 2007, and Calvin was so excited to get up and celebrate that he forgot to leave no doubt on the catch.  Consequently the Lions are a really, really bad 0-1.  Yes, I said it - it's Calvin's fault.

6.  The NFL is incapable of making rules that are easily interpreted.  Remember the "tuck rule"?  Yesterday the Megatron Incident reminded us what the receiving equivalent of that rule is.  Have a read:

If a player goes to the ground in the act of catching a pass (with or without contact by an opponent), he must maintain control of the ball after he touches the ground, whether in the field of play or the end zone. If he loses control of the ball, and the ball touches the ground before he regains control, the pass is incomplete. If he regains control prior to the ball touching the ground, the pass is complete.  (Courtesy of Kevin Siefert)


Here's the video.  At what point does "the act of catching a pass" end?  At what point can the refs determine that "he touches the ground"?  Did Calvin lose control of the ball before the ball touched the ground?  If so, when?  If not, then shouldn't this rule be irrelevant to what happened after he let it touch the ground?  This is not "black and white" as the NFL has said.  Calvin's catch could easily fit as a catch within this rule if (a) Calvin's two feet and butt touching the ground qualifies as "going to the ground"; (b) Calvin is deemed to have had control of the ball during that entire process of "going to the ground".  Why should the "process" be determined to last after both feet and a butt have all hit while retaining possession?  I see no reason whatsoever as to why this rule necessitated the ruling given on the field.  This needs to be fixed, and fast.